JTWC has upgraded the status of Invest 94S to Tropical Cyclone 19S. The first advisory was issued early this morning at 0300Z (1100 Phil / Mal). The system now is located near 6.2S, 127.7E moving 150 degree at 6 knots with winds at 35knot and gust at 40knot. The system is currently tracking south southwestward and is expected to make a southwest turn within the next 12 to 24 hours and slightly intensify before interacting with East Timur and finally exiting to the South Indian Ocean.
The Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB) forecast that this system will reach the maximum intensity of 60knots 96 hour from now indicating that there is a possibility of this system reaching the category of Level 2 Tropical Cyclone (Scale according to BoM of Australia). The Indonesian Authority has also released cyclone alert through their official website but has yet to upgrade this system as a significant cyclone at press (0600Z). Multiple model has captured on this system but stand differently on its track. The GFS cycle run as of 050700Z brings the system straight Northern Australia where as NoGaps cycle run suggests that the system will track South West to the Southern Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, the following diagram is the forecast track by JTWC concur with the forecast by NoGaps model.
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We will continue to update on the system from time to time. Stay safe and have a good day.
WestPac Wx Weather Casters ~Francis~