Bottom Line Up Front: Potential low pressure area to cross Philippine Sea this weekend.
Active Storms: None.
5-Day Tropical Discussion:
A near-equatorial trough remains horizontal, centered near 7°N latitude. The disturbance centered roughly near 145-150°E continues to be the subject of interest. Although it is yet to be classified as an invest, this disturbance continues to maintain model trend consistency, showing mild development over the course of the next 5 days. It is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Thursday, spreading showers across the western Carolines and Palau in the near-term. Currently, the probability for tropical cyclone development with this disturbance remains low. If any development occurs, it will be limited; i.e. a minor tropical depression. That noted, regardless of the cyclone status, heavy rainfall will be the main threat of this system.
Current forecast paints the threat of heavy rain across Caraga and the Eastern Visayas region this weekend. News reports from the Caraga Region is indicate over 22-thousand residents are still in evacuation shelters after previous flooding events from earlier in the month. If the current forecast verifies, it may intensify a delicate situation. We'll continue to monitor the situation as the disturbance evolves.
Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.
Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike
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