- A Monsoon trough (ITCZ) extends west to starting in the South China Sea from a JMA LPA located West of Luzon at 14°N 113°E, across the Philippines to Yap Island… through a Invest LPA 98W located at 7.7°N 136.3°E, about 200 km ENE of Palau Island… trough ends at the Equator, near 162°E.
- Invest 98W has been upgraded into a <30kt Tropical Depression by the JMA this morning.
- Another Suspect area/Invest 99W is located SE of Tokyo, Japan at 30°N 148.5°E… This system is rated Medium by the JTWC.
- An Mid-Latitude Low is pushing across the Korean Peninsula.
- The Subtropical ridge is centered East of Japan, moving East. Meanwhile, another Subtropical ridge is starting to build from Mainland China. The two ridges are separated (Ridge-Axis) at Western Japan.
- Models have depicted a Tropical Cyclone to form near Yap Island in the Carolines within the next 24-48 hours.
- The LPA West of Luzon is also being forecast to form into something significant by midweek.
LPA 98W is in a favorable area of development… wind shear of 5-10 kts and decreasing, High sea surface temperatures. An area of increasing vorticity is also found near Yap, and is attributed to 98W.
Tropical Cyclone formation is expected within the week. The MJO signal has increased and is now in the Southeast Asian region, and could promote higher moisture levels.
Data from NWS-Guam, PAGASA, Japan Met (JMA), Thai Met (TMD), JTWC, CIMSS, NRL, NOAA CPC, PSU Met Dept.
@ManilaTC | #ClarkEligue
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