Westernpacificweather.com - Todays Tropical Weather Outlook

Todays Tropical Weather Outlook | Thursday, 6 September 2012

Published on September 6, 2012 by Clark in Daily Updates, General Weather Updates, Tropical Outlook, Tropicals

Todays Tropical Weather Map for September 6 (IMAGE: NRL Monterey, Graphics by Clark Eligue)

EXISTING SYSTEMS

A Monsoon trough (ITCZ) extends west to starting in the South China Sea from 13°N 105°E, across the Philippines to Yap Island… through a Suspect Area of Interest located at 7°N 144°E, about 725 km SSW of Guam, USA… the trough ends at the Equator, near 157°E.
A surface trough goes across the Marianas Islands FROM 16°N 136°E to 12°N 143°E to 20°N 151°E through a Suspect Area of Interest located at 23°N 158°E to beyond 25°N 171°E.
An upper-level low (TUTT) is centered north of the Marianas Islands at 21°N 146°E.
The Subtropical ridge is centered East of Japan and extends to Eastern China all the way to Northern Luzon.

MODEL FORECASTS

60% of models have depicted a Tropical Cyclone to form near Yap Island in the Carolines, Southwest of Guam by the end of the week to early next week.
The Suspect Area of Interest located at 7°N 144°E, about 725 km SSW of Guam, USA is currently being considered as its origin although it’s not yet being considered as a Invest area by NRL or JTWC.

CURRENT ENVIRONMENT

The Suspect Area of Interest located at 7°N 144°E is in an area of moderate and increasing wind shear of 10-20 kts. The system should move in an area of favorable shear later on. Moderate and increasing convergence and upper level divergence has also been observed in the area.

OUTLOOK

No Tropical Cyclone formation is expected until Sept. 8, Saturday although odds are increasing that it is possible by the start of next week.

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SOURCES

Data from NWS-Guam, PAGASA, Japan Met (JMA), Thai Met (TMD), JTWC, CIMSS, NRL, NOAA CPC, PSU Met Dept.

@ManilaTC | #ClarkEligue

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