– A Monsoon trough (ITCZ) extends starting from a JMA-tagged LPA located at 13°N 109°E, moving west slowly… through another JMA-tagged LPA/Suspect Area now bringing rains over Southern Luzon, JMA places this further east at 14°N 127°E meanwhile PAGASA puts it just East of Infanta, Quezon Province this morning… The Trough continues and ends to a third suspect area of convection at 5°N 145°E, about 1200 km South of Guam.
– An upper level low to the Northeast of the Marianas Islands could provide an outflow mechanism to the Suspect Area near south of Guam.
– A Subtropical steering ridge is across Southern China extending all the way across the south of Japan.
– There could be a chance for Tropical Cyclone formation by the end of the week into early next week (Sept 7, Friday to 12th, Wednesday), as majority of the models have presented this scenario.
– The Suspect Area near south of Guam could be the one that could bring this up.
– A favorable environment for formation is still evident with high sea surface temperatures, low and decreasing wind shear continue to be present in the Western Pacific.
– No Tropical Cyclone formation is expected until Sept. 6, Thursday.
SOURCES: Data from NWS-Guam, PAGASA, Japan Met (JMA), Thai Met (TMD), JTWC, CIMSS, NRL, NOAA CPC, PSU Met Dept.
@ManilaTC | #ClarkEligue
Copyright © 2010-2012 Westernpacificweather.com | http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/05/26/copyright-notice/
Complete Eastern Asia weather Updates | http://www.westernpacificweather.com/
Tropical Weather Discussion | http://www.storm2k.org/wx/
Daily Satellite Analysis | http://www.westernpacificweather.com/daily-surface-analysis/
Follow and LIKE Clark’s Manila Typhoon Center Facebook Page | https://www.facebook.com/ManilaTyphoonCenter
Check out Clark’s Manila Typhoon Center website | http://typhoonmanila.weebly.com
Follow Clark on Twitter! @ManilaTC @sonpudong
Follow Westernpacificweather on Facebook | https://www.facebook.com/pages/Westernpacificweather/159977594036674
See us at our Partners Webpage 28storms | http://28storms.com/typhoon/
Typhoon Chaser Footage | http://typhoonfury.com/