Western Pacific Map as of 0600 UTC
EXISTING TROPICAL SYSTEMS
– A Monsoon trough extends eastward starting from a JMA-tagged LPA located at 14°N 111°E… through another JMA-tagged LPA now approaching the Bicol Region in the Philippines… It continues to a third suspect area of convection at 2°N 148°E, about 1330 km South-Southeast of Guam… the trough then ends at 4°N 162°E.
– The other LPA near Wake Island has dissipated.
MODEL FORECASTS (as of 0000 UTC Run)
– Almost all of the available model guidance shows the LPA East of Luzon tracking into Bicol and Southern Luzon as a weak system within the next 48-72 hours, good news being that it could be no more than a Low Pressure Area.
– 30% of the models depict a system forming south of Guam, this co by Sept 8.
– High sea surface temperatures, low and decreasing wind shear of (5-10 kts) is present along the periphery of the Monsoon Trough
– Steering layer analysis show a deep-layered Sub-Tropical ridge is now developing extending from Southern China and another one centered over Iwo Jima.
– No Tropical Cyclone formation is expected until Sept. 6, Thursday.
– NOAA Climate Prediction Center Model guidance indicates a break in tropical cyclone activity and suppressed convection in the western Pacific, east of the Philippines based on their forecast period which ends today. A new update from the CPC will be out by midnight tonight.