The RSMC-JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) has upgraded this morning the tropical disturbance East of Northern Luzon into a warned, full-blown Tropical Depression.
At 0000 UTC, TD 96W was located at 18.7°N 126.0°E… 410 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan… The system has winds of 30 kts/55kph, according to the JMA.
The system has been moving South-SSE at 11 kph over the last 6-12 hours, partly due to the influence of 2 competing ridges of High pressure in the low levels, one located to its SW and one to its North, a stronger zonal STR extending into eastern China. Models have been mixed on what this system will do, one thing is certain is that it will once again enhance the Southwest Monsoon, which is bad news to flood-and-rain-weary Luzon.
Meanwhile, another Tropical Disturbance formed in the Carolines, located at 11.2°N 140.1°E.
This is about 280 km Northeast of Yap Island… 560 km WSW of Guam… 1600 km E of Samar… 560 km outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
Models are developing this disturbance into a Major storm next week, so expect to hear more from this in the coming days.
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