MID-WEEK WESPAC
TROPICAL REPORT
1400UTC/2200PST, JULY 25, 2012
MID-WEEK WESPAC TROPICAL REPORT MAP FOR JULY 25, 2012
VICENTE IS GONE, BUT, UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE TROPICAL WESPAC
Following the departure of Typhoon VICENTE (Ferdie), things are quite confusing in the tropical WESPAC this time around. There are many things to watch, but no clear indication of what is to be expected! Please read on…
ON THE BOARD…
93W INVEST
This area of disturbed weather has been monitored for the past 3 days, and was heralded to be the “next big thing” by yours truly. I am sticking by my statement. I think this system has the potential to become the WESPAC seasons’ first Category 5 storm. The problem is the uncertainty in the forecasted track and strength. I’ll talk about that in a moment, but first, let’s get the latest details on the system:
93W INVEST
Coordinates: 7.6N, 131.7E
Location: 670km (418mi) ENE of Davao City, Philippines
Movement: WNW @ 10 knots (estimated)
Max. Winds: 15 knots, gusting to 20 knots (estimated)
Min, Pressure: 1010mb (estimated)
(Source: NRL)
93WINVEST-15kts-1010mb-76N-1317E-072512-1914PST-NRL
For the past several days, this system has been forecast to track to the NNW and slowly strengthen into a powerful typhoon, with a potential path cone encompassing an area from Taiwan to Kyushu, Japan. The issue of movement is the steering winds, or veritable lack thereof, in the region. The steering winds are at very low levels (<10knots) across MUCH of the tropical WESPAC. On top of that, wind shear and the mid and upper-levels is rather strong throughout most of the region, with an area of weaker shear located between 8N and 35N, and 135E to 115E. It is a rather irregular area of lower shear, and is being impinged on by an area of higher shear to the east associated with a strong upper-level trough that was established when two very strong TUTT cells set up the WESPAC last week. Herein lies the problem with forecasting 93W. If the shear progresses westward, then 93W will not become that strong. If the shear does not progress westward, then we have a problem. Factor in a virtual lack of steering winds, as mentioned earlier, and we have all the ingredients for big surprise, if we aren’t diligent. We WILL be here at westernpacificweather.com. For now the NOGAPS model is showing a possible close pass by Okinawa as a CAT 4 or CAT 5 typhoon. The GFS and ECM models show little in the way of strong development.
94W INVEST
Another recently formed area of disturbed weather has been born from the same pesky TUTT cell that bore Typhoon 09W VICENTE (Ferdie) AND Khanun (Enteng). This area is quite disorganized, and is not expected to develop into a strong storm. Here are the latest details on this system:
94W INVEST
Coordinates: 21.0N, 123.5E
Location: 171km (106mi) NE of Basco, Batanes Islands, Philippines
Movement: WNW @ 10 knots (estimated)
Max. Winds: 15 knots, gusting to 20 knots (estimated)
Min, Pressure: 1010mb (estimated)
(Source: NRL)
94WINVEST-15kts-1010mb-210N-1235E-072512-1915PST-NRL
Information is sketchy on this system, but I can find no clear circulation on the OSCAT graphics, and there isn’t much evident on satellite imagery either. There is a possibility that this system will stall, and hang around long enough to play a part in the development of 93W. I’ll have more on that in a few minutes. Steering winds are a little stronger at this latitude, so if this system should form, it is likely headed for the Chinese coast as a very weak system.
AROUND THE NEIGHBORHOOD…
The ITCZ is REALLY cooking now, after a brief respite earlier in the month. I count no less than 3 tropical waves, as well as 93W INVEST in the ITCZ, so we can certainly consider it back to an “active” phase. On top of that, our TUTTs are also still out there. These upper-level systems have really been the generators of the tropical weather this season. There are also 3 of those bad boys out there…at 27N, 118E, moving NW; another at 17N, 149E, moving SSW, and the last out at 21N, 162E, filling and moving NE. First of these TUTT’s is the one that bore both KHANUN and VICENTE. It is heading inland and should be of no further consequence to us in the coming days. The middle one is a powerful TUTT, and appears to be regenerating after weakening a bit over the past 48 hours. This feature is the sole reason for the HUGE upper-level trough in the WESPAC and the resulting high wind shear values in the area. The last TUTT listed is filling and moving away, and will be of little consequence. The southwest monsoon is trying to recover following VICENTE’S pass through the region, and there is plenty of moisture for that feature to work with. The Mai-Yu baroclinic zone is actually rather quiet right now, and I am sure folks in Japan are very happy about that.
CRYSTAL BALL…
I peered into the Crystal Ball this afternoon, and it looked more like the “Magic 8-ball” with the quote “outlook doubtful”! The situation in the WESPAC is quite uncertain, and far too uncertain for the crystal ball to manage. The NOGAPS computer model shows 93W’s formation and movement parallel to the Philippines, then a turn to the N and NNE, before turning BACK to the NNW and NW, passing VERY close to Okinawa on August 1st. The GFS and ECM models are not so sure on the strength and movement of the systems, but the GFS is showing what appears to be a twin LPA situation setting up on 31 July, which appears to be some sort of a monsoon gyre. ECM is really not showing a whole lot in terms of development through the model run. In the end, I think we really need to keep an eye on 93W. This system is going to be the NEXT BIG THING!
That’s your mid-week tropical report! Happy hunting!
Michael Williams Sr.
P.M.D.
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