MID-WEEK WESPAC
TROPICAL REPORT
1400UTC/2200PST, JULY 18, 2012
MID-WEEK WESPAC TROPICAL REPORT MAP FOR JULY 18, 2012
AFTER THE QUIET, RETURNS THE CHAOS!!!
This time last week, we were basking in the glow of…nothingness. There was absolutely nothing to talk about a mere 7 days ago. Since then, things have gotten just a wee bit…busier. Now, not only do we have one full-fledged tropical cyclone on our hands, but we have another forming, and another potential area to talk about! So, on with the show….
ON THE BOARD…
Tropical Storm 08W KHANUN (Enteng)
Tropical storm 08W KHANUN (Enteng) is bearing down on Korea at the time of this writing, after sweeping by Okinawa just 24 hours ago. This system has been a very low-profile system, having spent all of its existence out in the open ocean. Born from a TUTT cell earlier in the week, the storm has never really threatened any land masses until this time. Here is the latest information on TS08W KHANUN (Enteng):
Coordinates: 31.9N, 126.1E
Location: 370km (230mi) SSW of Gwangju, South Korea
Movement: NNW @ 20 knots
Max. Winds: 50 knots, gusting to 60 knots
Min. Pressure: 985mb
(Sources: JTWC and NRL)
TS08W KHANUN (Enteng)-31.9N, 126.1E-50kts-985mb
TS08W KHANUN (Enteng) is expected to skirt the South Korean coastline tonight and tomorrow, before slamming into the coastline of North Korea sometime early on Friday. We cannot discount this storm because it will interact heavily with the mountainous terrain of the Korean peninsula, and flooding is common is these situations. Residents of Korea should be on alert for the next 48 hours. Otherwise, KHANUN (Enteng) is expected to dissipate rapidly after moving inland.
92W INVEST
Out of the same TUTT cell that bore KHANUN (Enteng) comes our next potential tropical player in the form of 92W INVEST. This system was also spawned by a dying TUTT cell earlier this week, and as its older “brother” zoomed away to the NW, this system slowly drifted away from the action and started to organize. As of this writing, the system is looking quite impressive on satellite imagery. Here is the latest information on 92W INVEST:
Coordinates16.0N, 131.0E
Location: 751km (467mi) ENE of Viga, Catanduanes, Philippines
Movement: WSW @ 10 knots (estimated)
Max. Winds: 15 knots, gusting to 20 knots (estimated)
Min. Pressure: 1010mb (estimated)
(Sources: JTWC and NRL)
92WINVEST-16.0N, 131.0E-a5kts-1010mb
The latest computer forecast models show this system is moving to the NW and passing just north of the Philippines, en route to a final destination of eastern China. But, so far, the system has continued moving to the WSW, so, all bets are off at this time. But the models are forecasting mild intensification and a great deal of monsoonal moisture to be transported into the Philippines as this storm passes to the north this weekend. PWV’s (Precipitable Water Values) are off the chart for a LARGE area in the vicinity of this storm. There is still much to be discussed and diagnosed for this system. Stay tuned.
AROUND THE NEIGHBORHOOD…
Elsewhere, the ITCZ is cranking back up again, following a short, two-week rest. Activity abounds along the zone from 110E to 170E. A couple of the tropical waves running along the ITCZ have potential to form, which I will discuss in the next feature. Otherwise, another strong TUTT cell, similar to the one that bore KHANUN and 92W, is located near 19N, 145E and is starting to move into the same area that the other TUTT bore those earlier systems. Another vigorous TUTT cell is located farther to the east near 20N, 178E. The southwest monsoon has been slow to recover since the departure of TALIM (Carina). It is expected that 92W will fix that issue. The Mei-Yu baroclinic zone has been very active to the north of the tropical regions, with only mild pulses of energy making their way into more tropical climes.
CRYSTAL BALL…
Well, it would appear that 92W will form and move north of the Philippines and into China, That brings us to the possibility of the “next big thing”. I avoid going out on a limb, but since this is the “crystal ball’ section, I guess I can take some chances here. Based on what I see and feel, as well as what I observe while looking at computer models and satellite pictures and sending small furry animals out swimming into the vast pacific ocean to gather data for me and…wait… I got side-tracked. Sorry! AHEM! Based on my judgement, I think there is great potential for a VERY strong storm to form from the impulses running along the ITCZ currently. It could very well be our first CAT 5 storm of the season. I will avoid sending out any false flags, but I think the ITCZ east of 140E needs to be watched carefully for the next 7-10 days.
That’s your mid-week tropical report! Happy hunting!
Michael Williams Sr.
P.M.D.
