MID-WEEK WESPAC
TROPICAL REPORT
0100UTC/0900PST, JULY 11, 2012
Mid-week WESPAC Tropical Report Map for July 11, 2012
ALL IS QUIET ON ALL FRONTS…FOR NOW…
It’s is in times like these that writing a regular feature for a tropical weather website becomes a bit challenging! There’s simply nothing going on out in the realm of tropical weather right now! After a very fast-paced start to the 2012 tropical season, things in the tropical WESPAC have quieted down to a near “dead-stop” over the past 7 days. Of course, it is merely a lull, in what will once again ramp up and become an active “conveyor belt’ of death and destruction in the coming weeks. For now, I suppose we should relish the lack of any threatening activity, and steel ourselves for the work ahead, which could prove to be quite challenging for many WESPAC residents as we move through late July and August. More about nothing…
ON THE BOARD…
ALL CLEAR!!!
Following the designation of two additional INVEST areas by the NRL earlier in the week, the slate is now clean and clear, with no suspect areas currently being noticed or monitored. The JTWC never did start reporting on the two INVEST areas, and the NRL dropped them from the list yesterday. So…that leaves us with…serene calm and quiet, while the region prepares itself, climatologically speaking, for the next round of activity.
AROUND THE NEIGHBORHOOD…
There are currently some minor features to be aware of out in the tropical WESPAC. However, given that there are literally MILLIONS of square kilometres to monitor, I am surprised that there is such peace and calm in the region. Currently, there are three easterly waves to take note of. One recently traversed the Philippine archipelago in the form of two distinct waves…one over the weekend, and the second one yesterday. The first one was declared 98W INVEST on Monday following its emergence into the South China Sea. However, a lack of organized development and poor atmospheric conditions led to the dissipation of this system. Meanwhile, another weaker wave moved through the Philippines on Monday and Tuesday, and all of the moisture has now merged west of the country where it is expected to become more moisture for the Southwest Monsoon. Another easterly wave is located near 8N, 142E, with the third located near 5N, 160E. There are currently two TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough) CELLs located in the WESPAC. One is located near 19N, 142E, and the other is located near 25N, 161E, and was associated with 99W INVEST earlier this week. Both of these features are moving to the SW. The Mei-Yu baroclinic zone remains at a favorable latitude, therefore, the repeated intrusions of continental energy into the tropical regions have stopped. Otherwise, the ITCZ is in a nominal activity stage, due in part to the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) dry phase. There is also an indication of El Nino conditions starting to develop in the EASPAC. This could spell a longer tropical season for the WESPAC if that anomalous area of warmer water migrates westward before autumn.
CRYSTAL BALL…
The latest NOGAPS computer model runs indicate that the easterly waves mentioned earlier BOTH have the potential to form into tropical cyclones. However, nothing is definitive at this time. As things look now, peering into the crystal ball (on loan from Sauraman, or maybe it was the wicked witch of the east), it should remain quiet in the WESPAC through the remainder of the week. What we can expect in the mid-term is a marked increase in the strength of any systems that do form, due to the region getting a chance to “reset”. With a noticeable lack of easterly wave activity, and an increasing sun angle as the orb of light starts its slow progression southward, the already very warm (29-31C) SST’s should continue to provide a greater source of OHC (Ocean Heat Content), where the warm water layer at the surface becomes deeper, resulting in a maintenance of warmer surface temperatures. This, along with a smooth-running atmospheric heat engine, which should be operating at full capacity once the “conveyor belt of death and destruction” becomes active again, leads me to believe the next 30 days are going to be quite busy, and possibly historic in proportions.
That’s your mid-week WESPAC tropical report! Happy hunting!
Michael Williams Sr.
P.M.D.
