WEEKEND WESPAC
TROPICAL REPORT
1300UTC/2100PST, July 7, 2012
Weekend WESPAC Tropical Report map for July 7, 2012
LISTEN TO THE SOUND…OF SILENCE…
After a marathon start to the 2012 WESPAC tropical weather season, things have suddenly ground to an abrupt halt. As we enter the second week of July all atmospheric elements have conspired to bring a serene calm to the tropical weather region. The ITCZ is a bit busy, but nothing appears threatening on the horizon. But, quiet, doesn’t necessarily mean boring…
ON THE BOARD…
ALL CLEAR!!
Following the exit of the tropical disturbance/tropical depression that battered portions of the Philippines in the earlier part of the week, nothing seems to be of any real concern out there. There are currently 3 easterly waves that are tracking along the ITCZ, but as of this writing, none appear to pose a real threat for cyclonic formation. But, since I have some extra space, let’s review the 2012 Tropical Weather Season, as things stand right now…
2012 Season review Map
Tropical depression
January 13 – January 14
Intensity: <55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min), 1006 mbar (hPa)
Affected areas: Singapore; Malaysia
Tropical Depression 01W
February 17 – February 21
Intensity: 55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min), 1004 mbar (hPa)
Affected areas: Philippines; Vietnam
Tropical Storm Pakhar
March 24 – April 2
Intensity: 75 km/h (45 mph) (10-min), 998 mbar (hPa)
Affected areas: Philippines (as a tropical wave); Vietnam
Tropical Depression
April 8 – April 11
Intensity: 55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min), 1004 mbar (hPa)
Affected areas: Shipping interests
Tropical Depression
April 28 – April 30
Intensity: <55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min), 1008 mbar (hPa)
Affected areas: Philippines
Severe Tropical Storm Sanvu
May 20 – May 27
Intensity: 110 km/h (70 mph) (10-min), 975 mbar (hPa)
Affected areas: Guam; Iwo To (Iwo Jima)
Typhoon Mawar (Ambo)
May 31 – June 6
Intensity: 140 km/h (85 mph) (10-min), 960 mbar (hPa)
Affected areas: Philippines; Okinawa
Typhoon Guchol (Butchoy)
June 10 – June 20
Intensity: 185 km/h (115 mph) (10-min), 930 mbar (hPa)
Affected areas: Okinawa; southern Japan
NOTE: This system was the third controversial system to form so far this year, due to the vast differences in the opinions of the weather agencies when trying to determine the storm’s intensity.
Severe Tropical Storm Talim (Carina)
June 16 – June 21
Intensity: 95 km/h (60 mph) (10-min), 985 mbar (hPa)
Affected areas: China,; Taiwan
Tropical Storm Doksuri (Dindo)
June 25 – June 30
Intensity: 75 km/h (45 mph) (10-min), 992 mbar (hPa)
Affected areas: Philippines, China
Tropical Depression
June 30 – July 1
Intensity: <55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min), 1006 mbar (hPa)
Affected areas: Philippines; China
**Information courtesy of Wikipedia
AROUND THE NEIGHBORHOOD…
The rest of the tropical WESPAC, is relatively quiet. There are currently 3 easterlly waves embedded in the flow of the ITCZ. They are located near:
12N, 124E (traversing the Philippines)
11N, 139E (north of Yap Island)
9N, 171E (deep eastern WESPAC region)
Elsewhere, the SWMS is trying to make another comeback, active between continental Southeast Asia and Palawan Island of the Philippines. But, due to a dry phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), the moisture is just not quite there. High pressure rooted along the 20th parallel, between 115E and 155E, will continue to provide an easterly flow, as the STR (Sub-Tropical Ridge) gains some strength. This will help keep any systems that do form on a more westerly track for a longer period of time. VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) is rather low south of 7N, between 150E and 170E, but increases as you progress northward. VWS is also showing lower values in the region of high pressure mentioned earlier, from the equator to almost 30N latitude, between 125E and 145E. Values increase significantly as you progress westward to the Southeast Asian coast.
CRYSTAL BALL…
It’s really very quiet out there. I cannot apply enough magic powder to the crystal ball to get much out of it. Current computer forecast models are showing some type of formation starting to occur at the end of their model runs on 14 July. GFS is showing the area to be a bit farther south than NOGAPS. Otherwise, I guess we can enjoy a typical storm-less tropical weather week!! We need the rest!
KUDOS…
Hats off to the group for the coverage on the tropical system labeled 96W that moved through the Philippines. On July 3rd, Rob Gutro of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. Gave us a little credit on the NASA hurricane website. We were thrilled to be able to provide information that is useful. Here is the story: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_96W.html
In addition, recently we were given the privilege to join forces with the esteemed members of the weather group known as Storm2k.org. This wonderful group of avid weather enthusiasts and professional meteorologists have a vision such as ours here at Westernpacificweather.com. It is simply our desire to bring the available information to everyone, in the easiest way possible. We hope to inform, and educate if we can. But most of all, we simply want to get the word out, so the most important things of all…YOU…can be safe.
All of us here at Westernpacificweather.com are avid weather enthusiasts. Some of us were so enthused that we became professional meteorologists! But one common thought runs through the minds of most of us. That thought is: Information for people in ALL areas of the tropical WESPAC has been too lax, for too long. Thousands have needlessly died, just in this century alone (it’s only 2012), because the information wasn’t available, distributed properly, or easily understood. We have all made a commitment to breaking the “SOUND OF SILENCE” in the tropical WESPAC, to save lives. Please allow this posting of the lyrics of a very famous song by Simon and Garfunkel, which I feel is appropriate, in some ways:
The Sound Of Silence (3:08)
P. Simon, 1964
Hello darkness, my old friend
I’ve come to talk with you again
Because a vision softly creeping
Left its seeds while I was sleeping
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of silence
In restless dreams I walked alone
Narrow streets of cobblestone
‘Neath the halo of a street lamp
I turn my collar to the cold and damp
When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
That split the night
And touched the sound of silence
And in the naked light I saw
Ten thousand people maybe more
People talking without speaking
People hearing without listening
People writing songs that voices never shared
No one dared
Disturb the sound of silence
“Fools,” said I, “you do not know
Silence like a cancer grows
Hear my words that I might teach you
Take my arms that I might reach you”
But my words like silent raindrops fell
And echoed in the wells of silence
And the people bowed and prayed
To the neon god they made
And the sign flashed out its warning
In the words that it was forming
And the sign said “The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls
And tenement halls
And whispered in the sound of silence
© ℗ Sony Music Entertainment, Inc.
Happy hunting!
Michael Williams Sr.
P.M.D.
