1300UTC/2200PST, June 20, 2012
GUCHOL GOES “BYE-BYE”…TALIM MEETS ITS DOOM…AND LITTLE SWIRLS ABOUND!!
The approach to the northern hemispheric summer solstice finds the WESPAC in a temporary state of relative calm, following a quick rush of three organized tropical cyclones in as many weeks. And, although things aren’t quiet by any means, they have calmed just a bit. GUCHOL has now gone extra-tropical, after skirting portions of the archipelago nation of Japan and slamming directly into southern Honshu Island as a very strong tropical cyclone. GUCHOL is now, thankfully, headed out to sea. But alas, there is Tropical Storm TALIM…a “surprise baby” if there ever was one! But TALIM will not be around for long. And that leaves 93W INVEST, which is looking weaker by the hour. And then there’s…well, read on…
ON THE BOARD…
TROPICAL STORM 06W TALIM
While we were watching GUCHOL over the weekend, a new INVEST area sprang up near Hainan Island in the South China Sea on Saturday. 92W INVEST was associated with a deep monsoon trough located there, and wound up very quickly due to a pretty favorable local environment. Within a day or two, it was declared at Tropical Storm, named TALIM by the JMA. Here is the latest information on Tropical Storm TALIM:
Source: NRL@1114UTC (1914PST)
Position: 24.0N, 118.4E
Location: 95km (59 mi) SE of Zhangzhou, China
Movement: NNE@14knots (JTWC 0900UTC bulletin)
Winds: 45-55 knots
Tropical Strom TALIM has been sheared apart for the past several hours, and is starting to interact with the land masses of China and Taiwan. The SST’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) and OHC (Ocean Heat Content) are much lower in the strait of Taiwan and the wind shear increases as you travel father north. TALIM will continue to weaken for these reasons, and will likely begin its ETT (Extra-Tropical Transition) within the next 12-18 hours. Unfortunately, TALIM has already, and will continue to, dump very heavy amounts of rain over Taiwan and then Japan in the following days, due to the deep tropical nature of the moisture associated with the system. After all of that, TALIM should race out to sea like the others, becoming a major headache for mariners.
93W INVEST has been rapidly moving west-northwesterly or the past 3 days. On satellite loops yesterday, it was starting to look pretty impressive. Then it became apparent after several more loops later in the day that this system was in trouble. Starting from the mostly unfavourable netherlands” of tropical development (less than 5 degrees latitude), the system started to much more resemble an elongated trough, with a SW-NE axis, much like GUCHOL, except, this storm was still down near 4N, and GUCHOL was up around 8N when this feature became evident in its development. Therefore, the system hasn’t fared quite as well. The system has travelled quite a bit more to the north, thanks to the western periphery of the STR, which is still trying to recover from the last trough incursion from the north. Here is the latest information on 93W INVEST:
Source: NRL@1114UTC (1914PST)
Position: 11.5N, 132.8E
Location: 498km (310mi) NNW of Arai Koror Babelthaup Airport, Palau
Movement: NW at 10-15 knots (estimated)
Winds: 15-20 knots (estimated)
Pressure: 1010mb (estimated)
Whereas vorticity in this area is moderate, I think this system stands little chance of developing. Forecast models do not show any development here either. I think this area of moisture will be jetted off to the north around the STR, but some may leak westward into the Philippines.
AROUND THE NEIGHBORHOOD…
Elsewhere in the tropical WESPAC, things are relatively quiet. There is an area along the ITCZ out near 170E, but that is associated with a TUTT. There is another feature that is starting to ride to the southwest along a stalled trough near Guam, and is showing some vorticity. The southwest monsoon has been sucked away by TALIM, and is trying to recover across southeast Asia from the west. And the Mei-Yu baroclinic intrusions continue, no matter how uncharacteristic, leaving a lot of variability in the tropical weather scene.
93W should dissipate, however, there is a curious little area working its way across the equator near 140E. This is some moisture that is caught up in the larger trough to the north which is 93W. The NOGAPS forecast model shows this area might start to form into a system, but move to the NNW and N. NOGAPS also shows a potentially larger system starting to form on 27 June, near 8N, 140E. The GFS model is showing the area near Guam to form into a disturbance, and also move to the N. Overall, however, looking at things as they are today, I think we are in for a relatively quiet 3-5 days.
That’s your mid-week tropical report! Happy hunting!
Michael Williams Sr.