Westernpacificweather.com - Breaking: 95W now a Tropical Depression by RSMC-JMA

Breaking: 95W now a Tropical Depression by RSMC-JMA

Published on May 31, 2012 by Clark in Breaking News, Invest 95W, Storm Update, Tropical 04W, Tropicals, Uncategorized

Just hot off the presses, Invest 95W — currently on a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, has been upgraded to a “tracked, full-pledged” Tropical Depression by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

At 0600 UTC, TDa was located at 11.8N 128.7E, about 360 km East Northeast off Borongan, Eastern Samar, Philippines.

Here is the 0600Z (2pm Manila) warning, JMA has TDa (pre-04W/pre-Ambo):

WTPQ20 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 11.8N 128.7E POOR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 14.1N 126.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

And its corresponding prognostic reasoning:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 11.8N 128.7E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 310600 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Please do note that the position is Poor, meaning that JMA has a large error in determining the storm center. This is evident in the last satellite fix by NOAA SAB, which puts the center closer to the Philippines.

529
TPPN10 PGTW 310620 COR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (E OF PI)
B. 31/0532Z
C. 12.1N
D. 128.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT. COR FOR POSITION,
MOVING SLIGHTLY WEST CLOSER TO THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS.