Just hot off the presses, Invest 95W — currently on a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, has been upgraded to a “tracked, full-pledged” Tropical Depression by the Japan Meteorological Agency.
At 0600 UTC, TDa was located at 11.8N 128.7E, about 360 km East Northeast off Borongan, Eastern Samar, Philippines.
Here is the 0600Z (2pm Manila) warning, JMA has TDa (pre-04W/pre-Ambo):
WTPQ20 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
PSTN 310600UTC 11.8N 128.7E POOR
MOVE WNW 07KT
24HF 010600UTC 14.1N 126.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
GUST 050KT =
And its corresponding prognostic reasoning:
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 11.8N 128.7E
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
POSITION ACCURACY AT 310600 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
Please do note that the position is Poor, meaning that JMA has a large error in determining the storm center. This is evident in the last satellite fix by NOAA SAB, which puts the center closer to the Philippines.
TPPN10 PGTW 310620 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (E OF PI)
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT. COR FOR POSITION,
MOVING SLIGHTLY WEST CLOSER TO THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
31/0119Z 11.6N 129.1E MMHS
31/0452Z 12.2N 128.4E MMHS
In any case, expect JTWC and PAGASA to follow suit, in their 5pm Advisories
You can have a more Technical and detailed discussion on Invest 95W in our forum
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