The JTWC has upgrade the possibility of Invest 94S developed into a significant tropical cyclone to medium. The area of convection is currently located near 4.5S, 126.2E. (20120505 1800Z), approximately 545NM NNW of Darwin Australia. Pressure around the convection area was at 1006mb with the intesity of 25 knots.
Low vertical wind shear (5 to 10knot) with sea temperature above 30 Celsius is highly conducive for tropical cyclone development. Several model guidance suggested that the maximum intensity from this system is at 35 knot within the next 36 to 48 hour.
GFS model run at 050512 1800Z forecast that this system will move Southward and make land interaction in somewhere in Western Australia or the Northern Territory on the latter part of the week (9th or 10th of May 2012). Meanwhile, NoGaps model run at 050512 1800Z forecast that this system will move South West crossing the Timor Leste and Jawa Island on latter part of the week (9th or 10th of May 2012) before moving into the South Indian Ocean.
And finally, on your right is the streamline analysis from the Indonesian Meteorological Agency. We will continue to bring you the latest updates on this system from time to time. For more information and view on satellite imagery, please follow the discussion of this storm in our forum. http://www.westernpacificforecast.com/swpac-invest-94s-t43.html
That’s all from me right now. Stay safe and have a good day.
WestPac Wx SE Asia Casters ~Francis~