Clear skies and warm temperatures continue to prevail across much of the Philippines today thanks to the High Pressure dominating in the area. However, east of Mindanao is a weak low that could develop into a cyclone in the coming days. The image below shows the highlights of today’s update:
IR Image from NOAA
Invest 97W was last located approximately 170km south southeast of Koror, Palau. JTWC is currently rating this system as having LOW chance for development. It is currently struggling to develop as dry air is being entrained due to the proximity to the high pressure. However, last few frames of the IR suggest a small flare-up of convection is occurring just southeast of the low-level center. We still have to continue watching to know if it is really trying to restart consolidating or just part of the diurnal cycle. You can watch Rob’s latest video update for more info and forecasts for this system.
Forecast Graphic (NOT OFFICIAL!)
The development of Invest 97W will, of course, play a critical role with the short and medium-term weather for the southern half of the Philippines. Right now, I’m leaning more towards the weaker solution therefore bringing only a medium chance of rain and thunderstorms for parts of Mindanao and Eastern Visayas by the weekend. Rest of the country (ie Luzon) should continue having mainly clear skies and warm temperatures with isolated rain showers in the afternoon. We have put up 50% for rain for Baguio and the rest of Northern Luzon due to the approaching front (also highlighted in the above image). As for the rain amounts, we are only looking at small amounts (less than 50mm) unless 97W really develops into a cyclone.
Rest assured that this system is being closely monitored by our team for possible signs of development. Just keep checking our site for the latest updates on this system. Next 3-day forecast will be this Saturday, April 28. Stay safe!